A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
