Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
