Just two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team which has put together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
A reversion to average might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
